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06 Tech · Curated · Oracle: LMArena text leaderboardLive

An open-weights model tops the main leaderboard by November?

79%Yes · reputation-weighted
81%Yes · money only
Yes price · last 48h
ReputationMoney
25%50%75%
Volume $160Bettors 3Closes Nov 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Sharp signalTier IV and above

1 OF 1 SHARPS SAY YES

Yes 1No 0
CallsPublic · permanent · written before the outcome
  • Tier III@base_ratesNO$30 at 5%12d

    “Leaderboards lag new releases by weeks”

  • Tier V@kleos_maxiYES$50 at 50%12d

    “The gap to #1 closed to 8 points this month”

Resolution

Reading the market from the chain…

Resolution criteria · written before the first bet

YES if a model with public weights is ranked #1 on the LMArena text leaderboard on Nov 30.

After close, a trader with earned reputation and no position proposes the outcome from LMArena text leaderboard with a $10 bond. During the dispute window anyone can challenge it with a $15 bond. Undisputed proposals finalize automatically. Disputes go to the Kleos Court: 5 tier-V jurors with no stake vote in secret, and 3 matching votes decide YES, NO or AMBIGUOUS, which refunds everyone.

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